Intended for healthcare professionals
Review

Cervical cancer prevention in Australia: an evolving process towards elimination

Abstract

Australia established a National Cervical Screening Programme (NCSP) in 1991 using the Papanicolaou smear on a 2-yearly interval. This led to an initial drop in cervical cancer incidence, mainly of the squamous origin, but has plateaued since 2007. Introduction of a National HPV Vaccination Program for girls in 2007, which now includes boys, was followed by a major change in the NCSP to a 5-yearly cervical screening for people aged 25–74, using a primary human papillomavirus (HPV) test with partial HPV genotyping and reflex liquid-based cytology triage, designated as a Cervical Screening Test. The next important milestone was expanding the option of self-collection to all eligible people in 2022 to encourage more participation in cervical screening. Population-based cancer screening programmes require monitoring of their performance, quality and safety. NCSP monitoring reports are produced annually with performance indicators grouped under each of the five population screening pathway stages of ‘Recruitment’, ‘Screening’, ‘Assessment’, ‘Diagnosis’ and ‘Outcomes’. From this monitoring, changes are being made in the renewed NCSP Guidelines to improve participation and management of screened abnormalities. All this is underpinned by the provision of cervical screening data by the National Cancer Screening Register. In 2020, WHO published the Global Strategy for cervical cancer elimination with goals to achieve through HPV vaccination, screening with a high-performance test and women identified with cervical disease receiving treatment. Australia has made good progress in 2023 with 84.2% HPV vaccine coverage for girls by the age of 15 years, 82.8% of women aged 35–39 screened at least once with an HPV test and 79.8% of women aged 45–49 having been screened at least twice, and 84.5% and 88.7% of those with precancer detected in 2022 were treated within 6 and 12 months.

Introduction

Australia established the National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) in 1991 with the aims of reducing illness and death from cervical cancer in Australia. It originally targeted people aged 20–69 for a 2-yearly Papanicolaou (Pap) smear, or ‘Pap test’ to detect precancerous abnormalities of the cervix. The major advance that raised the possibility of eliminating cervical cancer was the introduction of the National HPV Vaccination Program for girls in 2007.

In October 2011, the Australian Department of Health announced the renewal of the NCSP. In April 2014, following a robust and transparent process involving a commissioned evidence review and health outcome and economic modelling, the Australian Medical Services Advisory Committee made several recommendations for the renewed NCSP.1 In December 2017, NCSP changed to a 5-yearly cervical screening for people aged 25–74, using a primary human papillomavirus (HPV) test with partial HPV genotyping and reflex liquid-based cytology (LBC) triage, designated as a cervical screening test (CST). The next important milestone was expanding the option of self-collection to all eligible people in 2022 to encourage more participation in cervical screening, particularly for disadvantaged groups and those less inclined to have a cervical screening sample collected by a healthcare provider (table 1).

Table 1
Milestones in the National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP) in Australia

In 2020, WHO published the Global Strategy for cervical cancer elimination,2 underpinned by three main pillars and goals, to be achieved by 2030: 90% of girls fully vaccinated with HPV vaccine by age 15 years, 70% of women screened with a high-performance test by 35 years of age and again by 45 years of age, and 90% of women identified with cervical disease receive treatment. It has called for all nations to strive towards eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem (incidence rate of below 4 per 100 000 women) in the next 100 years. The latest fourth report on Australia’s progress towards the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem was published online in March 2025. This was prepared by members of the National Health and Medical Research Council Centre of Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control. Cervical cancer incidence was 6.6 new cases per 100 000 women in 2020, and against the 3 main pillars (1) HPV vaccine coverage for girls by the age of 15 years was 84.2% in 2023, (2) 82.8% of women aged 35–39 screened at least once with an HPV test and 79.8% of women aged 45–49 had been screened at least twice by the end of 2023 and (3) 84.5% and 88.7% of those with precancer detected in 2022 were treated within 6 and 12 months.3

The aim of this review is to highlight the commitment of various stakeholders, from government, health agencies and healthcare providers, working towards the elimination of cervical cancer, with a focus on improving participation among the underscreened, especially the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.

Overview of the evolving process towards elimination of cervical cancer in Australia

Cervical cancer incidence

In 1982, cervical cancer was the sixth most common cancer in Australian women and by 1991 it had fallen to seventh ranking, presumably related to opportunistic screening for cervical cancer. Following the introduction of the NCSP in 1991, there was a steady fall in the incidence of cervical cancer, and by 2007, it ranked the 12th most common cancer in Australian women. The incidence has plateaued since 2007–2020, the latest available data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW): Cancer data in Australia.4 (figure 1). In 2020, squamous cell carcinomas comprised 62.7% of all cervical carcinomas, followed by adenocarcinomas at 28.4% and adenosquamous carcinomas at 2.1%. Other specified and unspecified carcinomas were the remaining 6.7%. This is in contrast to 1982, when squamous cell carcinomas comprised 81.2% of all cervical carcinomas, with adenocarcinomas far rarer at 11.4%.5 Improvement of the rate of detection of glandular precursor lesions was one aspect considered in the strategy for renewal of the NCSP, to ensure that Australian women are offered optimal cervical screening. Although there is currently no reliable national data on the diagnosis of cervical cancer for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, analysis on what is available from some states showed the incidence was 2.3 times the rate of non-Indigenous women over the 5 years 2016–2020 (22.8 and 10.0 new cases per 100 000 women in the population, respectively).5

Incidence of cervical cancer in Australia. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW): Cancer data in Australia.4

National HPV Vaccination Program

The National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007 with a school programme for girls aged 12–13 years, with catch-up programmes for girls aged 14–18 and for young women between 18 and 26 years. The quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16 and 18 (GARDASIL) was used as it is effective in preventing infection with the oncogenic HPV types (16 and 18) that cause 70%–80% of cervical cancer in Australia. HPV types 6 and 11 are the main causes of genital warts. In 2013, boys aged 12–13 were also included with a catch-up programme for year 9 boys aged 14–15.

The National HPV Vaccination Program Register had reported an initial vaccination uptake of 73% for the full course of three doses among eligible girls aged 12–13 years nationally. The next-generation 9-valent vaccine (GARDASIL 9) with the capacity to prevent up to 90% of cervical cancers in effectively vaccinated females was included in the National HPV Vaccination Program in 2018. At the same time, the number of doses required was reduced to two. From February 2023, HPV vaccines were administered as a single-dose vaccine rather than a two-dose vaccine. This change has contributed to the rise in vaccination rates assessed at 15 years of age, 85.9% for females and 83.4% for males in 2023.6

National Immunisation Programme (NIP)-funded single dose catch-up HPV vaccination is now available to all people aged up to and including 25 years.

School-based HPV vaccination has improved equity in HPV prevention in Australia, with variation in vaccine uptake far smaller than that for cervical screening, with similar (or better) vaccine impact in Indigenous people, and similar impact regardless of area-level socioeconomic status or remoteness.7 HPV vaccination participation was also enhanced with recommendations to provide avenues for students and parents to obtain information about HPV vaccination via a dedicated national website, HPV education in school curriculum, media campaigns and social media. This included developing and improving HPV vaccination resources in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander languages and for Culturally and Linguistically Diverse people.8

National Cervical Screening Program(NCSP)

In December 2017, Australia changed to a renewed NCSP based on 5-yearly cervical screening using a primary HPV test with partial genotyping and reflex LBC triage, for women aged 25–69 years, with exit testing up to age 74 years. HPV testing refers to testing for oncogenic HPV types, defined as those associated with the development of invasive cervical cancer. These include HPV 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66 and 68.9 HPV testing can be performed using a range of technologies including DNA PCR, DNA hybridisation and testing for RNA, and these need to be approved and have to meet specific requirements set by the National Pathology Accreditation Advisory Council.10

The CST result is reported as low, intermediate or high risk for significant cervical abnormality based on both the HPV test (reported as HPV16, 18 or not 16/18) and (where indicated) reflex LBC. Management and recommendation are provided according to the risk stratification of the CST. NCSP has published Guidelines for the management of screen-detected abnormalities, screening in specific populations and investigation of abnormal vaginal bleeding.11 This provides guidance for screeners and healthcare practitioners involved with colposcopy and management of screened-detected abnormalities (table 2).

Table 2
Management according to risk stratification of the Cervical Screening Test. National Cervical Screening Program Guidelines.11

National Cancer Screening Register(NCSR)

The NCSP is supported with cervical screening data provided by the NCSR, following the migration and consolidation of state and territory cervical screening register data in 2017.12

The role of the NCSR is to:

  1. maintain a national database of cervical screening records,

  2. invite eligible people to commence cervical screening when they turn 25,

  3. remind participants when they are due and overdue for cervical screening,

  4. provide participants cervical screening histories to laboratories to inform screening recommendations,

  5. provide a ‘safety net’ for participants who are at risk and who have not attended further testing by prompting them to have follow-up tests.

The NCSR Rules 2017 require certain screening information to be notified by pathology providers within 14 days. These include HPV tests, cytology and histopathology.13 To ensure colposcopy practices are audited as well, all colposcopists are also required to report a minimum data set for each colposcopy to the NCSR.14

Monitoring key aspects of the NCSP

Population-based cancer screening programmes require monitoring of their performance, quality and safety. NCSP monitoring reports are produced annually by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare with performance indicators grouped under each of the five population screening pathway stages of ‘Recruitment’, ‘Screening’, ‘Assessment’, ‘Diagnosis’ and ‘Outcomes’.

Some Performance Indicators from the NCSP monitoring report 20245 are highlighted in this review. All results described pertained to participants aged 25–74 unless described otherwise.

Participation

In 2019–2023, 63.5% of the target population aged 25–74 had a screening HPV test. The highest participation in cervical screening of 75.1% was observed in participants aged 25–29. The lowest group was participants aged 70–74 at 35.0% in 2018–2022 but trending upwards to 43.6% in 2019–2023. This age group has re-entered the renewed NCSP after leaving the previous NCSP after age 69.

For participants aged 25–69 in 2018 with screening HPV tests that did not detect oncogenic HPV, who were recommended to rescreen in 5 years, 16.1% rescreened within 4 years and 9 months (early rescreening). Most participants rescreened adequately—39.9% adequately and on time, and 16.1% adequately but overdue. 7.0% rescreened more than 6 years after their screen in 2018 (late rescreening). 20.9% had not rescreened as at 30 June 2025 (6.5 years after the end of 2018).15

Screening HPV test positivity

In 2023, 7.0% of participants were positive for oncogenic HPV (any) comprising 1.4% for oncogenic HPV (16/18) and 5.6% for oncogenic HPV (not 16/18). Positivity for oncogenic HPV (16/18) dropped from 2.0% in 2018 to 1.4% in 2023 and from 6.5% to 5.6% for oncogenic HPV (not 16/18). Positivity of oncogenic HPV (not 16/18) was highest at 17.3% in participants aged 25–29 and decreases with age to a low of 2.2% in participants aged 70–74.

Screening results

In 2023, 92.5% of participants were assigned as low risk for a significant cervical abnormality, 5.0% were intermediate risk and 1.6% at high risk. The proportion of screening episodes with low risk was only slightly increased from 91.0% to 92.5% between 2018 and 2023, with a corresponding decrease for intermediate risk from 6.2% to 5.0% and from 2.3% to 1.6% for higher risk results. Among the higher risk group, 12.9% was due to HPV (not 16/18) with abnormal cytology of possible high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion or worst including glandular abnormality. For the rest assigned higher risk due to positivity for oncogenic HPV (16/18), 45.3% of triage LBC cytology was negative.

Colposcopy referral is recommended for those with higher risk for significant cervical abnormality.

For participants aged 25–74 who were referred for colposcopy based on primary screening tests performed in 2022, the median time to colposcopy was 65 days (calculated from the date the test was performed). Overall, 78.9% of participants whose screening or follow-up test result in 2022 indicated that they should attend colposcopy had a colposcopy within 26 weeks of their screening or follow-up test. The rate was lower for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participants at higher risk of a significant cervical abnormality, with 50.8% having a colposcopy within 3 months compared with 60.8% of non-Indigenous participants, and this was further impacted by increasing remoteness from major cities.

Correlation of screening results

In 2022, of those participants with an LBC that predicted a high-grade or glandular abnormality or cervical cancer and were followed by histology within 6 months, 71.5% had a histology result of high-grade cervical abnormality or cervical cancer. No cancer was reported within 6 months of the primary screening test for an intermediate risk CST, while 0.6% of HPV(16/18) with negative or low-grade cytology were found to have cancer. When LBC was reported with a high-grade or glandular abnormality, cancer was found in 1.8% (29/1644) when associated with HPV (not 16/18) and 10.1% (109/1084) with HPV (16/18). High-grade histological abnormality was found in 0.2% (7/3640) with low-risk CSTs, 12.7% (91/716) of intermediate CSTs and 42.1% (2246/5331) of higher risk CSTs.

Follow-up results

For participants aged 25–74 who had a primary screening episode in 2022 that indicated they were of intermediate risk, 55.4% had a follow-up HPV test between 9 and 15 months, and 58.7% of participants who had a follow-up episode in 2022 that indicated they were of intermediate risk had a follow-up HPV test between 9 and 15 months.

In 2023, in the first follow-up 12 months after an intermediate risk screening episode result, 39.1% were low risk, 55.0% were intermediate risk, 4.2% were higher risk and 1.7% could not be assigned a risk. For those with second follow-up episodes in 2023, 36.0% were low risk, 63.8% were higher risk and 0.2% could not be assigned a risk.

High-grade cervical abnormality detection rate

In 2023, there were 7.8 participants aged 25–74 with a high-grade abnormality detected by histology per 1000 participants screened. It was 8.2 in 2018, reached a high of 16.5 in 2020 and fell back to 7.8 in 2023. The main components of the high-grade abnormality were CIN2 (31.7%), CIN3 (58.5%) and adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS) 3.4%.

Evolving NCSP Screening Guidelines and Management of Screened Abnormalities

Since commencement in December 2017, a number of changes have been made to the renewed NCSP Guidelines,11 the latest in April 2025. Some of the major updates are highlighted below (table 3).

Table 3
Updates on NCSP guidelines after commencement of Primary HPV screening11
  1. Colposcopy referral extended till after three intermediate risk CST results.

    Initial renewed NCSP guidelines recommended a follow-up HPV test in 12 months after an intermediate risk CST. Revised clinical guidelines in February 2021 recommended a second follow-up a further 12 months later if their first follow-up HPV test is again at intermediate risk, instead of referral to colposcopy.

    For women who may be at higher risk of a high-grade abnormality, a referral for colposcopy is recommended if HPV (any type) is detected at the first 12-month follow-up HPV test, regardless of the result of reflex LBC. This includes women who are 2 or more years overdue for screening at the time of the initial CST, women who identify as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander and women aged 50 years or older.

  1. Expanded option of self-collection

    On 1 July 2022, Australia expanded cervical screening with the option of self-collection to all women and people with a cervix aged between 25 and 74. For the year prior, over 70% of diagnosed cancer cases that occurred were in people who were behind in their screening or had never screened.

    This important initiative provides choice and agency, particularly to disadvantaged groups and those less inclined to have a cervical screening sample collected by a healthcare provider.

  1. Test of cure

    Test of cure following treatment of HSIL was initially by co-testing. It is now annual HPV tests until two consecutive tests are negative. Once the patient has completed the Test of Cure, they can return to 5-yearly screening.

  1. HPV (16/18) with negative LBC

    The initial NCSP guidelines were referral to colposcopy if CST is HPV (16/18) positive regardless of any reflex LBC. This applies as well for any repeat HPV test 12 months after if HPV (16/18). There is now an option for those with HPV (16/18) detected, LBC report of negative and normal colposcopy, if their 12-month follow-up results are again HPV (16/18) detected and negative LBC, the HPV test could be repeated in another 12 months rather than immediate re-referral to colposcopy.

  1. Surveillance following excisional treatment of AIS

    This requires annual co-tests and referral for colposcopy if any abnormal result. The interval can now be extended to 3 years if all co-tests are negative for 5 years. If all tests are negative for 25 years, they can either return to routine screening (if <70 years old) or exit the programme (if ≥70 years old).

Discussion

After the introduction of HPV vaccination, Australia experienced a substantial fall in vaccine-targeted HPV genotypes in vaccinated women, 7% compared with 29% in prevaccine-implemented sample. There was also a lower prevalence of vaccine-targeted types in unvaccinated women, adjusted prevalence ratio of 0.65 suggesting herd immunity.16 A steady decline in high-grade abnormality detection in younger women after HPV vaccinations was also noted. In those under 20, it fell from 11.6 in 2007 to 4.1 high-grade histology per 1000 women screened in 2015. There has also been a decline for women aged 20–24, from 19.7 in 2010 to 11.8 in 2015.17

In 2018, just after the commencement of HPV screening, high-grade abnormality detected by histology for participants aged 25–74 was 8.2 per 1000 participants screened and reached a high of 16.5 in 2020 before falling back to 7.8 in 2023. This transient increase had been predicted to occur in the first 2–3 years following the screening transition.18 We can expect a further reduction in high-grade detection rate as Australia is now into the second round of HPV screening and the majority of those under 30 years of age in the screening programme would have been vaccinated.

One of the strategies considered in the renewed NCSP is improvement of the rate of detection of glandular precursor lesions. The absolute numbers and proportion of AIS in histological high-grade abnormality detected in 2019 were 652 (4.0%) compared with 418 (3.4%) in 2023.5 19 An early report on a small number of 28 AIS diagnosed after commencement of HPV screening showed that 92.9% were due to HPV (16/18) and 35.7% were referred for colposcopy with negative reflex LBC.20 We should thus expect a further drop in incidence of AIS with substantial reduction of HPV (16/18) infections from high uptake of the HPV vaccination and earlier detection from HPV screening which LBC-based screening would have missed.

Surveillance following excisional treatment of AIS was revised to extend to 3 years if all annual co-tests are negative for 5 years. A recent report from the Netherlands suggested that after two consecutive negative high-risk HPV or normal co-tests within 2 years after conservative AIS treatment, the risk of recurrent AIS, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3, or cervical cancer is low, and it seems acceptable to refer patients back to the national cervical cancer screening programme, if applicable.21

Colposcopy referral is recommended after a higher risk CST result. The proportion of higher risk CST results was 2.5% in 2018, reaching a high of 2.8% in 2020 before falling to a current low of 1.6% in 2023.5 The change in guidelines in February 2021 to allow a further repeat CST after two intermediate risk results could explain some of the drop in higher risk CST results. Colposcopy demand was expected to increase substantially at the beginning of the HPV screening programme but exceeded expectations and lessons were learnt from the Australian experience. Uncertainty about appropriate clinical management or testing outside guideline recommendations may have contributed to the excess demand, highlighting the importance of training providers in the rationale for guidelines as well as the content.22 The initial increase in colposcopy referral proved to be transient, and the decrease from 2020 is in line with a report from British Columbia that colposcopy referral rates dropped after initial rounds of HPV-based screening and referrals after cytology triage were below the rates seen in their centralised cytology programme after approximately 4 years.23

The challenge for colposcopy is the large number of referrals with negative reflex cytology after testing positive for oncogenic HPV, accounting for 45.3% of HPV (16/18) positivity. Cervical cancer was found when histology was performed within 6 months in 0.6% of HPV (16/18) with negative or low-grade cytology.5 A report on our national experience in the first 2 years of primary HPV screening showed that women with positive HPV (16/18) and negative cytology still had a relatively high risk of underlying invasive cancer (0.32%), and this was similar to the risk in women with low-grade cytology (0.26%).24 Colposcopy for this affected cohort is even more difficult with the older age group 50–74 years old, with the problems of atrophy and type 3 transformation zone (TZ3) where part or the entire upper limit of the transformation zone cannot be visualised in the endocervical canal. In one study of this subgroup aged 50–74, 51.9% of colposcopy had TZ3 and positive predictive value was only 22.2% with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) colposcopic prediction. The rate of histological high-grade abnormality detected was 3.3% with one cancer case in the first 2 years after initial colposcopy for HPV (16/18) with negative cytology. If the repeat LBC was negative at the first colposcopy with no high-grade abnormality on colposcopy or histology, only 1.4% of these women were found to have histological high-grade abnormality for the same period.25 To avoid annual colposcopy for women with persistent HPV (16/18) positivity, there is now an option that the HPV test could be repeated in another 12 months rather than immediate re-referral to colposcopy for those with HPV (16/18) detected with negative LBC.

To improve diagnostic accuracy and reduce discomfort, NCSP Guidelines have recommended a short course of topical oestrogen therapy be considered for postmenopausal women, people experiencing vaginal dryness, or trans men prior to colposcopy. Endocervical curettage (ECC) could also be considered in some circumstances with TZ3, as a negative ECC may provide additional reassurance for a conservative (observational) approach.

Expanding the NCSP’s eligibility for self-collection has led to a substantial increase in uptake, particularly among previously hard-to-reach populations. Overall, the volumes and proportions of self-collected tests have increased from 10% in the third quarter (Q3) 2022 to almost 43% in the first quarter (Q1) 2025. The majority had colposcopy follow-up within 6 months of the HPV (16/18) positive result (80.6%).26 Findings from a study from 1 July 2022 to 30 June 2024 in the state of Victoria showed a notable increase in self-collection uptake in older age groups, regional areas and under-screened and never-screened women.27

Finally, the contribution of the NCSR to the elimination of cervical cancer cannot be understated. It will be difficult to envisage any NCSP being able to function without some sort of national screening registry with the ability to invite and remind participants to attend for their screening, as well as monitor the performance, quality and safety of the programme. Of the 1 826 830 invitees aged 25–74 sent an invitation by letter to screen or rescreen in 2024, 37.4% had an HPV test within 6 months. A letter of ‘invitation to rescreen’ had the highest response with 49.7% of invitees sent an invitation to rescreen having an HPV test within 6 months compared with 16.0% from ‘Invitation to screen’.15

There was a delay in the completion of the NCSR, which in turn led to a 6-month delay in the introduction of the HPV screening programme. This caused significant confusion among consumers and healthcare providers, especially the laboratory sector. A major lesson from the experience is that IT projects to develop health registers are complex and differ from other IT projects because these registers provide a myriad of inter-related functions beyond being a database repository. Providers of such IT systems need to include multidisciplinary teams, including public health and laboratory professionals, in addition to health information managers with relevant experience and IT professionals.22

This review has highlighted the commitment and collaboration of various stakeholders, from government, health agencies and healthcare providers, working towards the elimination of cervical cancer. The range of expertise is covered in various reports, both during the development of the programme and ongoing monitoring reports of various aspects of the NCSP.

The strive to eliminate will continue with ongoing innovations in both screening and management of screened abnormalities. In 2024, WHO recommendations added the use of dual-stain cytology to triage women after a positive test for HPV.28 The future augurs well, with much research ongoing in the application of methylated DNA markers,29 artificial intelligence-assisted colposcopy30 and urinary HPV testing.31 It is encouraging to see global collaborations supporting less well-resourced countries embrace the WHO strategy.