For women with histopathologically confirmed CIN 2 following colposcopy-directed biopsy, it is crucial to stratify patients into two distinct populations. The high-risk cohort faces an elevated probability of harboring occult CIN 3+ lesions or progressing to CIN 3+; these patients benefit from cervical excisional procedures, which provide both definitive diagnosis and therapeutic intervention. Conversely, the low-risk cohort may be safely managed via active surveillance. This conservative strategy involves close monitoring and serial evaluations to minimize immediate invasive treatments. This risk stratification is informed by several key clinical variables, including patient age, future fertility desires, cervical cytology, HPV genotype, colposcopic visibility of the SCJ, specific lesion characteristics, and the patient’s immune status.
Key determinants of active surveillance for CIN 2
1. Age: Age is one of the most critical factors predicting the progression or regression of CIN 2. For young women, particularly those aged <25 years who are sexually active, the prevalence of HPV infection is higher. However, owing to a more robust immune system and a stronger immune response, these HPV infections are predominantly transient. Studies show that in women <25 years old with CIN 2, 88% of lesions can regress, with a mean time to regression of 21 months. 21 Domestic data also indicate that the HSIL regression rate in patients aged <25 years is significantly higher than in those aged ≥25 years, and the median time to lesion regression is significantly shorter (12 months vs.15 months, p < 0.05).7 Conversely, women aged ≥30 years with CIN2 face a higher risk of invasive carcinoma during long-term follow-up;4 thus, more rigorous monitoring and evaluation are required when opting for active surveillance.
2. HR-HPV genotype: Studies demonstrate that the risk of CIN 2 progression in HR-HPV-positive individuals (25%) is significantly higher than in those who are negative (3%). Among them, HPV 16 positivity carries the highest progression risk (71%), followed by HPV 18 (48%). 22 After 24 months of active surveillance, 47% of HPV 16-positive CIN 2 patients progressed to CIN 3+. Multivariate analysis reveals that HPV 16 increases the risk of progression by 1.97 to 4.8 times.23
3. Cytological abnormalities: In patients with high-grade cytological abnormalities (ASC-H and above), the risk of CIN 2 progression is as high as 25% to 60%.24 For CIN 2 with cytology indicating HSIL, the risk of missing CIN 3+ during colposcopy, or of lesion persistence or progression, increases by 3.8 to 5.0 times.25 26 The regression time for CIN 2 with cytology HSIL or HPV 16 positivity is 2 to 3 times longer than that of cases with low-grade cytological abnormalities (ASC-US/LSIL) or non-HPV 16 positivity; however, no cervical cancer was detected at a median follow-up of 25 months.27
4. Colposcopic visibility of the SCJ: The visibility of the SCJ under colposcopy is a crucial factor influencing decision-making in active surveillance. Studies indicate that the risks of missing cervical cancer when the SCJ is not fully visible versus fully visible under colposcopy are 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively (P = 0.011).28 A study from China also demonstrated that when the SCJ is not fully visible, the risk of a missed diagnosis in women with CIN 2 increases by 9.6 times.29
5. CIN 2 lesion characteristics: A domestic study showed that the regression rate in cases with multi-quadrant CIN 2 involvement (42%) is lower than in cases with single-quadrant involvement (80%), while the progression rate is higher in the former (27% vs. 6%).8 An international study demonstrated that within a 3-month follow-up of women with CIN 2, the extent of lesion involvement was significantly associated with regression; patients with lesions confined to a single quadrant had a significantly higher regression rate than those with involvement of two or more quadrant.30 Additionally, when high-grade lesions extensively involve the endocervical crypts, presenting as expansile CIN, the risk of disease progression may increase. This requires careful consideration during clinical decision-making.1
Recommendations
(1) For women with CIN 2 under 25 years of age: active surveillance is the preferred, and treatment is also an acceptable option; (2) for women with CIN 2 aged 25 years and above with fertility requirements (who have more concerns about the impact of excisional treatment on future pregnancy than the disease itself), active surveillance can be selected if the SCJ and the upper limit of the lesion are visible, there is no CIN 2 in the endocervical canal, there is no history of cervical lesion treatment, and the follow-up observation conditions are met; (3) active surveillance should be cautious in patients with high risks of persistent/progressive lesions, such as extensive lesions (involving more than two quadrants), expansile CIN, persistent HPV 16/18 positivity, high-grade cytological abnormalities (ASC-H, atypical glandular cell, HSIL).
Process of active surveillance for CIN 2
Prior to initiating active surveillance for women with CIN 2, a comprehensive evaluation encompassing medical history, cytology, colposcopic findings, and histopathology is essential to definitively exclude glandular epithelial lesions and suspected invasive carcinoma. Patients must receive comprehensive counseling regarding the objectives of this conservative approach. This discussion should explicitly address the inherent limitations of colposcopy (e.g., the potential for underdiagnosis), the risk of lesion persistence or progression, and the potential clinical implications of deferring definitive treatment. Strict adherence to scheduled follow-ups is mandatory, and formal written informed consent must be obtained.The process of active surveillance is shown in figure 3.
Management process of active surveillance for CIN 2. *Age-based testing: cytological testing for women under 25 years of age; HPV-based testing (HPV testing only or co-testing with cytology) for women aged 25 years and above. AGC, atypical glandular cell; ASC-H, atypical squamous cell cannot exclude HSIL; CIN 2, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2; ECC, endocervical curettage; HPV, human papillomavirus; HSIL, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; SCJ, squamocolumnar junction.
Routine monitoring during active surveillance: Monitoring involves age-based testing: For patients < 25 years, cytology is performed; for those ≥ 25 years, HPV-based testing (primary HPV testing or HPV/cytology co-testing) is utilized, alongside colposcopic evaluation. Targeted biopsy ± ECC should be performed on all discrete acetowhite areas, regardless of whether the colposcopic impression indicates metaplasia or a higher-grade abnormality. Although cervical biopsy may exert a therapeutic effect that promotes lesion regression,31 the inherent risk of CIN 2 progression warrants meticulous serial monitoring.
Novel monitoring markers for conservative observation: (1) methylation testing: studies have shown that positive methylation testing combined with high-grade cytological abnormalities can predict CIN 2 progression,32 and the clinical regression rate is significantly higher in patients with negative FAM19A4/miR124-2 methylation (74.7%) than in those with positive methylation (51.4%).33 (2) HR-HPV gene integration: studies have shown that the risk of progression to HSIL in the HR-HPV integration-positive group is 5.6 times that in the integration-negative group34; an ongoing study on the natural outcome of HR-HPV integration in women with CIN 2/3 has shown that the persistent/progressive rate of CIN 2 is 58.82% in the integration-positive group compared with 15.29% in the integration-negative group. At present, these markers are still in the clinical research stage, and more large-sample data are needed for verification.
Indications for terminating active surveillance: surveillance should be discontinued and cervical excisional treatment initiated under the following conditions:(1) detection of CIN 3 or worse (CIN 3+), or persistence of CIN 2 for 2 years; (2) enlargement of the lesion, extension of the lesion into the endocervical canal, inability to visualize the upper limit of the lesion via colposcopy, or a completely invisible SCJ.
Follow-up protocol after CIN 2 regression: after two consecutive results (at 6-month intervals) of cytology < ASC-H, or a negative HPV test coupled with colposcopy-directed biopsy histopathology < CIN 2, patients should undergo annual age-based testing. If these subsequent tests remain negative, annual follow-up should continue for another 2 years, followed by routine screening every 3 years for at least 25 years.